COVID19 spread in India

People take COVID19 very casually only 3 to 4 percent mortality rate. SARS in 2003 had mortality rate of ten percent, however it only killed 744 people, but corona virus has already killed 5000 and increasing.

The infectivity of this virus is very high and can spread very fast in our country. To understand the spread of coronavirus in India, it is important to analyse other countries.

Italy

This is a developed country, with fairly well healthcare facility and less population density. However both the government and citizens, showed ignorance toward the potential danger by this virus.

PHASE1 — Feb 15: 3

PHASE2 — Feb 22: 79

PHASE3 — Feb 29: 1,128

PHASE4 — Mar 14: 21,157

An exponential curve can be seen in the number. Even after the situation got serious, it is very clear that control was difficult. Total reported deaths are 1,441 as I write this.

Iran

A developing country, heath facilities are not sufficient. Though they were active against the virus from start, the situation is not well, being the third most effect.

PHASE1 — Feb21: 18

PHASE2 — Feb29: 593

PHASE3 — Mar07:5,823

PHASE4 — Mar14:12,729

This is not exponential curve, rather a steep curve. It can be concluded, that initially the cases were almost negligible, after a threshold of 200 cases, the spreading rate increased very steeply, getting out of control. The total Deaths are 611.

USA

World’s most powerful country, with Sufficient Health facility, highly precative measures taken (at least after Italy) and very less population density.

Mar 2 : 100

Mar 9 : 704

Mar 14: 2,499

This is the evidence of high infectivity of this new virus. Initially, was a linear moderate rise, from 100 to 704 cases on march 9, followed by very steeply increasing graph. This shows how the infectivity is increasing with the increase in numbers.

Even after many precautions, there is a spread of the virus, mainly due to its late symptoms. After the case increases to certain level, you just can’t tell that your friend who is perfectly healthy is actually transmitting the virus.

Many Corona Infected patients have reported that, they were taking full care and never went close to a unhealthy person.

India

Our country has avoided infections, thanks to the efforts and decision of Indian Government. However, the virus finally came in the country via tourists. Initially, the cases were low as can be seen in any above mentioned country, but the cases have been increasing since then. As I am writing this, the total cases are near hundred and increasing.

Now, In every analysis aforementioned there has been a certain threshold after which the cases increased rapidly and this is where our country is standing today. Health ministry is trying to contain, the virus, quarantine the patients and reviewing the possible infections, but virus probably is already out.

In a country like India with, very high population density (5 times of that of USA), high economic diversity and careless citizens(less awareness) this virus can bring massive destruction. Healthcare is good, but not sufficient.

The bitter truth is that thousands of Indian may get affected with the virus. When this happens, hospitals are going to be full, beds won’t be sufficient for patients and people may die because of negligible medical attention. The virus has very less mortality rate, but when in low health without any medical attention, dying can get a lot likely than you think.

It is good to be afraid, and keep yourself safe.

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Om Rastogi

Om Rastogi

I believe in an altruistic world, where creativity and imagination replace repetitive work